Analyzing Trends: Predicting the Winner of the Emirates NBA Cup

NBA.com's writers will regularly share their insights on important storylines and trending topics in the league.

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The Knockout Rounds stage of the NBA Cup has arrived. Which team will be the last one standing?

Steve Aschburner

Oklahoma City Thunder. Oklahoma City is in the sweet spot for Emirates NBA Cup excellence over the next eight days, a Goldilocks team just right for this moment. It isn’t so experienced or veteran-laden, like the Milwaukee Bucks or Dallas Mavericks, that winning this tournament would elicit a yawn (aside from the cash, of course). But it also is more accomplished than the Houston Rockets or Atlanta Hawks, teams that might blink in the bright lights of Las Vegas. The Thunder on Tuesday can avenge a November loss to Dallas if it gets enough scoring help for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC was minus-10 that night in the nine minutes or so he sat).

Brian Martin

Milwaukee Bucks. After Franz Wagner joined Paolo Banchero on the sidelines with an oblique injury of his own, the Bucks have the easiest path to Las Vegas as the teams open the Quarterfinals on Tuesday. It was Milwaukee’s Group Play opener against Toronto that was the turning point from the Bucks’ disastrous 2-8 start to their 10-3 run since. Between Giannis Antetokounmpo playing at a Kia MVP level and Khris Middleton’s debut last week, a run to the Cup could spark Milwaukee’s return to the East’s top tier.

Shaun Powell

Dallas Mavericks. When weighing the potential champ of the Emirates NBA Cup, take stock of which of the remaining teams is peaking. And that team is the Mavericks, if only because they’re healthy and their two stars, Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, are doing high-level stuff. Winners of 11 of their last 12, this is the Dallas team that soared in the second half of last season and reached the NBA Finals, with a solid backcourt balanced by bigs (PJ Washington in particular). Oh, and the new ownership is from Las Vegas, the site of the championship … there’s also that omen.

John Schuhmann

Oklahoma City Thunder. Anything can happen on any given night (see Denver at Washington on Saturday), so no pick is a sure bet. The Thunder may have the toughest matchup of anybody, with the Mavs having won 11 of their last 12 games (including one in Oklahoma City) entering their quarterfinal on Tuesday. But let’s make it simple: Of the eight teams in the quarterfinals, the Thunder have the best record. Among all 30 teams, they have the best point differential per 100 possessions (+11.9) by a healthy margin. And unlike their first game against the Mavs, they’ll have Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup to help them avoid getting killed on the glass again.